Choosing Continuity and Change

Voters tend to prefer presidential candidates who are perceived as agents of continuity and agents of change. Group fantasies are collective social portions of the id, which Sigmund Freud described as a component of human mental activity together with the superego and ego. Group fantasies include desires that are shared by the majority of members of a population. Some of the desires are rational while others are irrational. Some are conspicuously overt; others are repressed from conscious awareness. Some are contradictory with each other. Contradictory group fantasies include a desire for continuity, associated with familiarity, and a desire for change, associated with reform. Group fantasies, as part of the id, value positives more than negatives. Most people prefer a candidate who satisfies both contradictory group fantasies instead of a candidate who rejects one of them.

Historically, many presidents combined both attributes when they were elected. These include Jefferson, Jackson, Cleveland, Wilson, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Eisenhower, Kennedy, Reagan, and Clinton. For example, Thomas Jefferson was a highly respected national leader who had been the principal author of the Declaration of Independence, secretary of state under Washington, and vice president to John Adams. Yet Jefferson subsequently opposed the conservative presidential policies of both his predecessors. Bill Clinton’s presidential campaign in 1992 emphasized “reinventing government,” “putting people first,” and improving the economy. But he was well known as the leader of moderate rather than liberal Democrats.

Among the candidates for president, Hillary Clinton currently has the most support from Democratic voters. To a great degree, she is perceived as an agent for both continuity and change. A group fantasy of continuity, shared by many Democrats, is that President Hillary Clinton will recreate the eight years of prosperity and peace while she lived in the White House as the wife of President Bill Clinton. A group fantasy of change, shared by many feminists, is that Hillary Clinton will be the first female president of the United States.

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Bill Richardson, governor of New Mexico, also represents both continuity and change but to a lesser degree. Continuity comes from his lengthy membership (1983-1997) in the U.S. House of Representatives followed by prominent national positions as ambassador to the United Nations and then Secretary of Energy. Change is seen in Richardson because he is Hispanic—his mother, who is still alive in her nineties and living in Mexico, and his paternal grandmother was also Mexican—and he would be the first Hispanic president.

Although not an active candidate, Al Gore is another Democrat perceived as an agent for both continuity and change. A group fantasy of continuity is his role as vice president during President Bill Clinton’s eight years of peace and prosperity, at the end of which Gore was the Democratic nominee for president in 2000 who received more popular votes than the “elected” George W. Bush. A group fantasy of change is expressed by Gore’s Nobel Peace Prize, which honored his efforts in warning that prevention of disastrous global warming requires rapid and effective actions by people and their governments. He might become the Democratic nominee for president if none of the currently active candidates is supported by a majority of the delegates at the convention in the summer of 2008.

A third active Democratic candidate is perceived primarily as an agent of change. Son of a black Kenyan father and a white American mother, Barack Obama is potentially the first African American president. His national exposure is recent and brief, beginning with his keynote address at the 2004 Democratic National Convention and his election later that year as a U.S. Senator from Illinois. He is the youngest active candidate. If elected president in November 2008 at the age of forty-seven, he would be only four years older than John Kennedy was in 1960 when he became the youngest person ever elected president.

Kennedy fulfilled an important group fantasy for change as the first Roman Catholic president. He also fulfilled group fantasies of continuity. His father, Joseph P. Kennedy, was a wealthy former government official and ambassador. John F. Kennedy was a highly publicized World War II hero, author of a popular book Profiles in Courage, and in his second six-year term as a U.S. Senator when he was elected president.

The other major Democratic candidate, John Edwards, represents continuity instead of change. Edwards is familiar to most voters as the Democratic nominee for vice president in 2004. He is a former U.S. Senator from North Carolina who expresses the traditional Democratic themes of populism and affinity with labor unions. In common with former Democratic Presidents Carter and Clinton, Edwards as a Southerner would gain electoral votes from Southern states if he is the party’s nominee.

Among the Republican candidates for president, Rudy Giuliani is perceived most strongly as an agent for both continuity and change. Group fantasies of continuity are satisfied by his highly publicized performance as mayor of New York City, especially after 9/11, his strong support of the war against insurgents in Iraq. His aggressive leadership style and his recent acceptance of Republican moralistic policies, such as criminalizing abortion, are consistent with the preferences of many Republican voters. Group fantasies of change are satisfied by Giuliani’s Italian descent, Roman Catholic religion, and troubled previous marital history.

Two other major Republican candidates combine attributes of continuity and change for Republican voters but to a lesser extent. Continuity is satisfied by John McCain’s age, seventy-one, his twenty-year service as a U.S. Senator from Arizona, and his earlier military service in the Vietnam War, including heroic behavior as a prisoner of war in North Vietnam. He strongly supports the war against insurgents in Iraq. But McCain means change as a dissident Republican aboard the “Straight Talk Express.” He competed against George W. Bush for the Republican presidential nomination in 2000 and subsequently criticized the president’s performance as a national leader.

Mitt Romney satisfies Republican group fantasies of continuity by his career as a successful businessman, president of the 2002 Olympic Winter Games in Salt Lake City, and governor of Massachusetts. He is a dominant and apparently admirable husband and father. He recently expressed support for moralistic Republican policies. His father, George Romney (1907-1995), was governor of Michigan and subsequently Secretary of Housing and Urban Development under Nixon. A group fantasy of change, which may attract both Republican and Democratic voters, is Mitt Romney’s Mormon religion. Most con-

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temporary Mormons, including Mitt Romney, have a well-earned reputation for ethical behavior and public service.

The newest Republican candidate, Fred Thompson, is perceived primarily as an agent for continuity. He is a former U.S. Senator from Tennessee and is associated with President Reagan because both politicians were also prominent actors. In comparison with Reagan, Thompson might be a better actor but he is inferior in public affability and political skills. He has endorsed authoritarian, moralistic Republican policies, and states’ rights.

I believe that the combination of opposing perceived attributes, continuity and change, helps to win the presidential nomination and also to win the presidential election in November. The group fantasy desire for both continuity and change applies to voters of all political parties. Most members of the Republican Party emphasize continuity as they are focused on traditional conservative Republican values. The commonalities of the leading Republicans include an elitist and fearful horror of illegal immigration, adamant and moralistic opposition to abortion rights, obsession with a “war” against “terror,” and support of continuing American military intervention in Iraq. Most members of the Democratic Party emphasize change, with a history of populist reformers. An advantage of being out of power is that the Democratic presidential candidates can promise more since they are not tied to specific policies. They accordingly promote health care coverage, concern for global warming, a more flexible foreign policy, and at least a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq. I expect that the presidential nominees in 2008 will strive to be perceived as offering both continuity and change. They might not be consciously aware of group fantasies, but their polling will reveal that most voters desire both contradictory attributes.

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