Why Obama Probably Will Be Re-Elected (article)

A prevalent group fantasy of American voters is the desirable choice between two rival political parties that alternate frequently in controlling the executive branch of the federal government. A president of the same party rarely occupies the White House for more than 12 consecutive years. The limited duration of continuous presidential power by one party is accompanied by a tendency for the president to be re-elected for a second term. Of the 14 presidents before Obama whose election changed the party of the White House occupant and who four years later were again nominated by their party for the presidency, 11 won re-election.

Thus, the history of presidential elections indicates a high probability that Obama will be re-elected in November 2012. This probability can be seen to increase or decrease by a comparison of Obama’s situation with the defeat of one-term president Democrat Jimmy Carter in 1980 by Republican Ronald Reagan. Carter in 1976 had defeated his predecessor, Republican Gerald Ford.

The comparisons of Obama in 2012 with Carter in 1980 ap-

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pear to be favorable for the re-election of Obama. Carter was opposed for the Democratic presidential nomination by Senator Ted Kennedy, who won the presidential primary in 10 states. Some of Kennedy’s supporters did not thereafter support Carter enthusiastically, or they voted in the presidential election for Congressman John Anderson, an independent candidate. Obama is unopposed for the Democratic presidential nomination in September 2012.

A more important advantage of Obama in 2012 over Carter in 1980 is probably the gradual recovery of the national economy in 2009-2012 after the collapse in 2008, while Republican George W. Bush was still president. A potential advantage for Obama is the slowness of the economic recovery. Severe inflation, a euphemism for depreciation of the U.S. dollar, thereby will be postponed. During Carter’s presidency, severe inflation was a hardship for many voters and probably the principal reason for Carter’s defeat in 1980. In November 2012, the majority of the unemployed voters will probably vote for Obama because they realize that the Republican members of Congress have been blocking Obama’s efforts to improve the economy.

Carter’s great international achievement, negotiation of the 1979 peace treaty between Israel and Egypt, was overshadowed by the imprisonment of United States embassy staff members in Iran and by the failed attempt of special United States military forces to rescue them. By contrast, Obama successfully initiated the assassination of Osama bin Laden and other Al Qaeda leaders. The current relationship between the United States and Iran is tense, but neither nation appears to desire warfare against each other prior to the November election.

Other factors supporting Obama’s re-election include his biracial parentage, an American mother descended from Europeans and an African father. With the help of his African American wife, Michelle, Obama will probably obtain the votes of most African Americans. He probably will also attract the votes of the majority of Latinos, Asian Americans, and other minority racial groups. The contrary sentiment of bigoted white voters, “He is not one of us,” will be less effective against the incumbent president than it was four years ago against the Democratic nominee for president. The Mormon religion of Republican nominee Mitt Romney will detract from his support by some Christians.

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Helpful to Obama is the U.S. Supreme Court decision on June 28, 2012, upholding the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, passed by Congress in 2010. That decision affirmed one of Obama’s principal achievements.

An advantage for Romney is the Supreme Court decision in Citizens United (2010), which upheld permitting corporations more freedom to donate money to political candidates. Obama will probably continue to obtain small amounts of money from multiple millions of supporters. He can then emphasize his advocacy for the 99% of the voters against the 1% richest that Romney’s policies favor.

Incorrect predictions about future events can contribute to correct subsequent predictions. I predicted that Democrat John Kerry would win the presidential election in 2004 against incumbent Republican George W. Bush. I underestimated the tendency to re-elect that incumbent president. If my prediction that Obama probably will be re-elected is incorrect, it will indicate my underestimation of a different influence on the voters in November 2012.

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