Psychohistory, Predictions, and the Millennium

Can psychohistory predict the future? At the September 17 meeting of the Psychohistory Forum, Ted Goertzel reviewed several theories of cycles in political consciousness and encouraged group members to speculate about the year 2000. Lloyd deMause, one of the key theorists reviewed, was present at the meeting and offered his observations on the current scene. DeMause, however, doubted that long range forecasting could be relied upon.

At times the discussion was heated. Goertzel defended positivist scientific methods as used in his recent statistical test of some of deMause’s ideas (which has been published in Political Psychology, Vol 14, No 4, 1993). deMause agreed that a statistical interpretation can be made, but thought that Goertzel’s statistical basis was too small. The meeting ended in good cheer, and members jotted down their predictions for the year 2000. There was no time to discuss these predictions at the meeting, but a summary is offered here in the hope of stimulating further discussion and possible newsletter contributions.

Some of the most interesting predictions concerned the Zeitgeist, the general climate of the times. Members offered the following sometimes contradictory ideas:

• there will be a thirst for a new creed, something to believe in there will be an increase in social mindedness, less emphasis on self, more on future development
• the younger generation will veer away from reality into computer games and virtual reality
• there will be an increase in utopian/­ dystopian themes in movies and TV
• there will be an increase in multiculturalism,

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a decline of English language dominance, and increased third-world immigration

Group members did not emphasize economic or technological futurism. One member thought that there would be an increase in conflict due to increases in economic inequality, while another thought that the trend would be for more equality due to the growth of the computer society. Technological and scientific factors mentioned were AIDS decimating Africa, the increasing dominance of TV and some success in the war on cancer.

Politically, several members thought that there would be an increase in right­wing, religious movements, perhaps emphasis on moral purity, anti­crime, anti­violence, anti­radical feminism, pro­family beliefs. Several expected the growth of sectarian movements, some with beliefs focusing on the millennium. One predicted that Ross Perot would take over the Republican Party, another stressed the emergence of a charismatic leader of some sort. In his opening remarks, Ted Goertzel offered a more specific political prediction: Al Gore would be nominated by the Democrats, but lose to a more charismatic Republican candidate. He also offered the prediction that President Clinton would involve the U.S. in a war similar in magnitude to the Gulf War shortly before the election, and that the communitarian ideology as espoused by Amitai Etzioni would become hegemonic.

Perhaps the most interesting were predictions concerning the future of psychohistory itself. Several members predicted that there would be increased interest and acceptance of psychohistorical ideas by the year 2000. One member suggested that there would be enough agreement on psychohistorical principles to allow progress in four key fronts: improving child­rearing, reducing the risks of war, recognizing sacrificial tendencies in society and increasing tolerance for ambiguity.

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