Isaac Asimov’s Contribution to Psychohistory

Isaac Asimov is certainly one of the most prolific writers of the later 20th century. His work includes over 500 fiction and non-fiction books and countless articles. He is probably best known for the creation of the fictional universe surrounding the Foundation Trilogy (Asimov 1951-1953) and its supporting literature as well as its linkage to another major work, the Robot Series. The resulting fictional panorama spans a period of future human history from our near future to a far distant future many millennia hence.

The purpose of this article is not to critique or review the formidable works of Asimov but to provide insight to his philosophical contributions to the field of psychohistory. Future psychohistorians may consider his contributions to the science in a similar vein to our crediting of foundations of other sciences within the parables, musings, and lessons of the ancient Greek philosophers. The significance of Asimov’s creative work in fiction is the theme of psychohistorical determinism which permeates his stories. He has done what no amount of scholarly psychohistorical research can do: he gives voice and substance to the work of the psychohistorian.

In the Foundation Trilogy, Asimov’s initial protagonists are a small group of psychohistorians gathered around their leader, Dr. Harry [sic] Seldon. The fictional psychohistorians are always working on their calculations to predict and influence the course of historical events, and, as fans of Asimov know, while not always successful, they triumph in the end. Their objective is to shorten the span of time humanity will have to suffer in Dark Ages following the collapse of the Galactic Empire and to engineer an especially benign, progressive Second Empire. The project takes a thousand years or so.

The quintessential role model of a psychohistorian is the character of Seldon, whose contribution to psychohistory was that he “found the field little more than a set of vague axioms; he left it a profound statistical science.…” (Asimov 1951-1953: p. 3). Asimov teases the reader of his fiction with partial yet significant hints as to the nature of the psychohistorical discipline. Below I will represent and paraphrase some of these.

Psychohistory is defined as “the branch of mathematics which deals with the reactions of human conglomerates to fixed social and economic stimuli” (Asimov 1951-1953: p. 14). Asimov’s defini-tion clearly supports a theory of psychohistory based in mathematical prediction of mass human behavior using variables of cause and effect, probabilities from social behavior, and economic conditions. Asimov appears to have taken his theory partly from systems theory, mathematical probability functions, quantum mechanics, and other different but interrelated theories. He is obviously referring to some of the principles — entropy, homeostasis, and equifinality — of systems theory, when he writes in Prelude to Foundation (Asimov 1988), “In many systems, the situation is such that under some conditions chaotic events take place … the more complex a system, the more likely it is to become chaotic” (Asimov 1988: p. 9).

Asimov makes numerous references to the higher order of mathematical development needed by the psychohistorians. At one point, his protagonist, Harry [Hari] Seldon, explains the purpose of the mathematical tools and acknowledges the intuitive nature of the work. Asimov writes, “Every successful politician, businessman, or human being of any calling must make these estimates of the future and do it fairly well or he or she would not be successful” (Asimov 1988: p. 10). But, for the purposes of psychohistory, this is not enough. Asimov’s character continues his statement, “With proper mathematics, anyone would be able to assess the probabilities. It wouldn’t take the rare human being who is successful because of a remarkable intuitive sense” (Asimov 1988: p. 10). Finally, Asimov’s fictional theory delves into the fabric of the universe by comparing quantum mechanics, or the movement of subatomic particles, to human society. Seldon explains,

In studying human society, we place human beings in the place of subatomic particles, but now there is the added factor of the human mind. Particles move mindlessly, human beings do not. To take into account the various attitudes and impulses of mind adds so much complexity (Asimov 1988: p. 11).

Turning to Asimov’s methodology, his protagonists develop an application model for their concept of intervention:

The psychohistoric trend of a planet-full

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of people contains a huge interia. To be changed it must be met with something possessing a similar inertia. Either as many people must be concerned, of if the number of people be relatively small, enormous time for change must be allowed (Asimov 1951-1953: p. 25).

Asimovian psychohistorians also make use of detailed individual psychobiographical profiles: “…in a plan such as ours … the actions of others are bent to our needs … [powerful bureaucratic functionary Chen’s] temperamental makeup has been subjected to greater scrutiny than that of any other single man in history” (Asimov 1951-1953: p. 34).

Asimov adheres to valid and reliable scientific research by including such statistically vital assumptions as,

Implicit in all these definitions is the assumption that the human conglomerate being dealt with is sufficiently large for valid statistical treatment… [and] a further necessary assumption is that the human conglomerate be itself unaware of psychohistoric analysis in order that its actions be truly random…. (Asimov 1951-1953: p. 14).

In Asimov’s fictional universe, the basis of all valid psychohistory lies in the development of the Seldon Functions, “which exhibit properties congruent to those of such social and economic forces as….” “probability of Imperial assassination, viceregal revolt, the contemporary recurrence of periods of economic depression, the declining rate of planetary explorations….” (Asimov 1951-1953: pp. 14, 16). In another case, “a rising bureaucracy, a receding initiative, a freezing of caste, [and] a damming of curiosity” (Asimov 1951-1953: p. 27) are considered as indicators of the collapsing society.

Prelude to Foundation, the last work to be written in the Foundation series, concerns the beginning of Harry [sic] Seldon’s search to resolve the mind-numbing question of how to find the underlying psychohistorical truths within the myriad of societies “each with its overall characteristics and culture … and all … interacting in innumerable ways and combinations!” (Asimov 1958: p. 11). In the end, the hero, Seldon, decides upon a reductionist solution. The decision is to study the capital of the Galactic Empire because of the representation of human social organizations and cultures present (Asimov 1988: p. 385). This idea is not so far-fetched when one considers that Asimov’s experience with New York City and its immediate environment was probably the model for the Galactic capital.

Consider for a moment that Asimov’s assumptions are valid for a model of psychohistorical assessment of past events. We, of course, have the same problem as the fictional characters in that the difficulty of quantifying all the conditions and variables appears insurmountable. However, I propose the following “axioms” as extrapolated from Asimov’s fiction for the methodological intervention model:

• The inertial force of a psychohistorical trend may be redirected by a large enough segment of population to present an equally strong alternative force.
• If the alternative inertial force is not equal to the presenting inertia of the historic trend, then time increase is required in inverse proportion to the size of the alternative population to change the direction of the original trend.
• Any public exposure of the psychohistorical intervention to the research subjects becomes an additional factor for consideration in terms of the contamination of the scientific experiment.

The research methodology would be to establish the historical boundaries for the variables in terms of time and population, reducing the following variables to a numerical value:

• Degree of social stability (internal and external)
• Degree of expansion (territorial and economic)
• Equality of opportunity (social, educational, and wealth-earning)
• Facility of enterprise (individual initiative)
• Facility of technological implementation (time lag between research, invention, and production)
• Energy consumption factors (renewable/-perishable, cost-effectiveness, environmental relationship)
• Religious factors (relative power of organization, degree of personal commitment)
• Political structure (organizational factors, unity levels, population demographic representation)

For example, variables might be reduced to points on a scale for each relationship at various intervals over time, ranging from –5 to +5 in correlation to the comparative events. Consider the extreme example offered by comparing Nazi Germany with the United States in May, 1945, on

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the independent variable of internal stability. One can assume Germany as being a -5 on the scale and the U.S. a +5 (see Figure 1).

Figure 1

Following the measurement of each variable, the mean for all variables at a particular time would yield the General Psychohistorical Trend (GPT), which can be plotted on a scattergram graph for trend analysis.

[Editor’s Note: Author Varela then presented a long “Outline for an Experimental Test of the Model” based on Spanish history. Mostly because of space restraints we are able to publish only the following brief summary.]

As an experimental test, take the space and time boundaries of Spain, Medieval Era from 711 CE to 1492 CE. A combined multiracial Islamic army invaded the Iberian Peninsula in 711, quickly conquering the sedentary Visigoth society. Small groups of Christians gathered in inaccessible areas in Northern Spain and established an independent kingdom. Islamic society dominated most of the peninsula and, following the initial brutality of invasion, established a powerful, stable [and highly civilized] state based upon religious tolerance, commercial enterprise, science and technology. The Christians began a process of conflict to retake the peninsula which took nearly 800 years to complete and culminated in Spanish domination of much of the known world for another 300 years. Could the course of evolution of the two societies and the ultimate triumph of the Spanish Christians have been predicted through psychohistorical analysis?

Consider for the purpose of this model that the General Psychohistorical Trend (GPT) (derived from the mean of the correlated variables measured through historical archives) of the Visigothic Christian kingdom prior to 711 CE was 0 and the Islamic society was +5. This would suggest the Christian kingdom was at a distinct disadvantage in terms of confrontation with the Islamic force and the probability is that the Christian kingdom cannot survive. At the year 711, we might measure the Christian kingdom at -5 and the Islamic society at +5. This would indicate that the collapse of the Christians was virtually total in comparison to the Islamic onslaught. Moving forward 10 years, following the limitations on the Islamic expansion, the measurement may be Christian kingdom +1 and Islamic +1. This would suggest a relative balance with enough pressure exerted from the Christian side to ensure survival. By a measurement taken approximately 14 generations later in the year 1000, we see the effects of the Christian transgenerational injunctions and religious fervor and measure the Christian kingdoms (as represented by Castile) as +3 and place Islamic society at -3. This would indicate that the positive trend on the Christian side is correlated with a negative trend of equal proportion on the Islamic side. Finally, in 1492, the full force of Spain united under the Catholic kings is measured as +5 and the Islamic caliphate at –5, indicating a total reversal of the condition and trend 800 years before.

The GPT for the two societies would demonstrate a steady negative trend for the Islamic caliphate and a steady positive trend for the Castilian Christians. The graphic chart of the two trends should cross at some point and that date would be the forecast for the destruction of Iberian Islam and the ascendance of Christianity. The test reliability would be a function of how close to 1492, the year of the final Christian victory, the GPT predicts. [End of summary of “Outline for an Experimental Test of the Model”]

The sheer weight of the documentation, reduction, and measurement process provides some insight to Asimov’s rendering of the fictional psychohistorian Dr. Harry [Hari] Seldon’s despair. It would be ponderous to reduce all the variables and calculate the myriad of correlations needed to support this model, however, but the end result yields a measurable numeric value which may be used to predict something about the society being analyzed. The work for the psychohistorian may be to enlighten society as to its deterministic variables and their consequences. The work of the politicians or teachers may be to change some of those variables to change the resulting General Psychohistorical Trend.

In conclusion, it appears that Isaac Asimov’s fiction is based upon very solid scientific thought. Any researcher of psychohistory knows that much of the literature is replete with the same concepts and theories offered by Asimov. The fact that Asimov offers the material in fictional form

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should not be a cause for neglect, but rather a celebration of the vision and depth of the human imagination. It must be noted that not only did Isaac Asimov pioneer in the development of psychohistorical concepts but he also wrote it as a good story.

Perhaps, we should consider Asimov’s science fiction stories in the same vein as parables and mythology, as a means of fostering group fantasy. Maybe life will imitate art, and some person inspired by fiction will seek to solve the psychohistorical equation, building on the tenets of the developing discipline, fiction and non-fiction, and thus raise humanity’s consciousness. At the very least, Isaac Asimov deserves an honored place in the litany of psychohistorical pioneers.

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